28 May 09
Be first!
Moff’s Market Mood – Capital Raisings Galore 21/5/09
G’day,
I’ll be keeping it exceptionally short this week guys, we’re flat out making sure everyone is participating in the GNC Share Purchase Plan (giving traders the right to buy $15,000 worth of stock at a 18% discount to the last traded price), so i’m a little time poor at-the-moment.
I’m still sitting in the camp calling for some more weakness in short-term. I think 10% top (3960) to bottom fall (targeting circa 3550) in this correction isn’t unreasonable. That would suggest another 7% to the downside. The flurry (or flood) of capital raisings kept coming this week; GNC, BBG (along with a big earnings downgrade), STO, AGS, APN, SGP & NUF. Our sophisticated investors could have bid for stock in all these placements, receiving exceptional short-term returns.
27 May 09
Moff’s Market Mood – Expected Retracement a Non-Event 14/5/09
Morning,
The All Ords have S&P500 (our global proxy) have drifted lower since last Thursday, after both averages tested their 200 day moving average (key long-term resistance) and begun to roll over. As outlined last week, the last time this average was tested the 200 on BOTH averages was the 19th May 2008; the day the last bear market rally failed. I am nowhere near as concerned about any failure now as I was in May 2008 (it is now much closer to the end of the bear on a historical probability basis). BUT, if both indices can’t push through their long-term 200 day moving average, I expect at least a couple of weak months ahead…. The technical caveat; if we break through to the upside, just keep swimming with the tide, taking selected profits where you can.
Weakness in the $USD is arguably the most important development unfolding in the markets at the moment. The big capital moves into the $USD and US treasury bonds throughout 2008 is unwinding, as investors appetite has moved from extreme risk aversion to low/moderate risk acceptance. This has seen the $USD Index fall 8% since March. What are the ramifications for a falling $USD when investing in Australian Equities? I could write an essay, but quickly; 1)· Be cautious on stocks that earn a large proportion of earnings in the US 2) ditto with companies that hold a large amount of assets overseas (especially if they have large debts), 3) expect exporters (i.e Agriculture) will struggle, 4) except exporters that produce commodities quoted in $USD (i.e base metals and oil), and 5) importers and tourism related stocks (i.e retailers & airlines) will usually perform well.
26 May 09
Moff’s Market Mood – Going With the Flow, Without Conviction – 24/4/09
Hi all,
It has been an interesting week. The “wobble” or “correction” I was looking for seemed a ‘sure-thing’ on Tuesday, a ‘not-so-sure-thing’ Wednesday, back ‘on-the-cards’ Thursday and a ‘mute-point’ in late Friday arvo trade.
I’m still sitting on the small parcel of ANZ June puts I bought late last week. I’m not convinced this market is going to keep rocketing higher. On the charts the BANKS are making short-term lower highs (except CBA which looks to be forming a possible head & shoulders), which is good bearish divergence. The caveat – banks are heading into their reporting season, which if they follow USA’s trend, will be better than expected (expectations are so low, that financial companies are “beating” expectations). Beating expectations usually leads to higher stock prices.
![[Most Recent Exchange Rate from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/24hr-aud-small.gif)
